Daily News Analysis :-

The outlook for 2024, for the world and India.

Geopolitical uncertainties and rapid changes continue in 2024.

1. Geopolitical polarization due to emergence of bipolar world order. USA on one hand and Russia-China axis on the other. This polarity is spreading across the regions. West Asia: Iran, Arab countries are moving closer to the Russia-China axis.
2. Uncertainties regarding the wars: Ukraine is losing the support of West, Russia exhibiting its resilience despite sanctions. All this impacts USA’s domestic politics.

Watching out the neighborhood and the region in 2024

China and India

1. China’s perception on India: India’s growing alliance with the USA is discomforting China.  Eg: QUAD alliance. This discomfort might grow.
2. China’s economy may be declining but its influence on India’s neighborhood is not declining.  Hence, India should keep watch on Chinese interventions in India’s neighborhood.
3. India should be aware of history. Mao’s unprovoked attack on India came in the backdrop of economic failure. Currently China is facing the similar decline.
4. Growing China-Russia axis might affect India-Russia relations. This might hinder India’s reach to the Central Asian region.

India and neighborhood

1. Absence of strategic presence in Afghanistan.
2. Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Maldives are gravitating towards China.

India and West Asia

Except UAE many Arab countries are breaking away from USA influence and gradually moving towards Chinese and Russians.

Internal dynamics to be watched in 2024

1. Between castes: Increasing caste loyalties
2. Between religion: Social engineering and fragmentation in terms of religion.
3. Between centre and states: More centralizing tendencies due to participation of high command in nominating the chief ministers in the recently election held States. ED and CBI intervention in the issues which have been dealt by the state government.
4. Between ruling and opposition: Frequent parliamentary disruptions. Exhibition of electoral majority’s dominance in the parliament. Recent expulsion of Mahua Moitra.

Centre-State relations in 2024

1. Opposition-led state governments should reassess their strategy: Shifting from the role of just opposing central government to playing constructive role through mooting alternative policies.
2. Centre and states are both equally powerful. Eg: Centre in North, States in south. Hence, they should cooperate in order to bring developmental policies and agenda which caterers to nation specific and reasons specific demands.